H1 2019 for the South Coast Industrial occupational market has upheld its reputation as a desirable strategic commercial hub, with strong performance indicators including; positive take up levels, maintained stock levels and increased numbers of enquiries. In a market with political uncertainty we are encouraged by the unfaltering market forces that are being shown by developers and occupiers alike. The investment market as started to show some signs of caution amongst investors however assets with good fundamentals remain attractive.
Availability Remains Static
Availability of stock on the South Coast has remained relatively static this quarter, with only a marginal increase of 13,342 sq ft, when compared with the same period last quarter, however the year on year figures are still on the rise with further new developments under construction.
New schemes which have been brought to the market this quarter include Phase 1 Proxima Park, Waterlooville comprising 103,910 sq ft and Unit 2 Hermitage Park, Havant totalling 32,500 sq ft
There have been a number of enquiries in Q2 with various interested parties for pre-lets at Dunsbury Park. Merlin Park, owned by BA Pension Fund and developed by Canmoor has only 2 units left out of 7 units on the scheme.
Q2 saw Fareham Borough council obtain planning consent for a new speculative scheme comprising 3 industrial units totalling 50,000sqft. Planning consent has also been granted for 3 units at Logistics City, Whitley to be constructed speculatively by Kier. This scheme comprises 3 industrial units totalling 58,664sqft.
The vital statistics have been summarised below:
|
Q2 2019 (sq ft) |
Q1 2019 (sq ft) |
% change |
% change Year on Year |
Total stock |
2,941,349 |
2,928,007 |
0.46 |
12.41 |
Prime stock |
883,284 |
870,989 |
1.41 |
-22.4 |
Secondary stock |
2,058,065 |
2,057,018 |
0.05 |
39.2 |
Take Up Positive Trend Continues
As predicted 2019 has continued the positive trend, with take up levels remaining relatively consistent with Q1 and significantly improved when compared with the same period last year*.
Availability and take up levels continue to show the resilience and strength of the south coast market. Prime take-up saw an increase of 637.67% (119,742 sq ft) when compared to the same period last year, demonstrating the continued demand for prime stock, addressing the needs of the modern occupier seeking greater efficiency, reduced upkeep and lower operational costs.
This also continues to have a positive effect on the industrial market as a whole, freeing up the secondary stock, which has also witnessed an increase in take up levels of 28.75% (64,067 sq ft) when compared to Q2 2018.
*Q2 2018 was documented as a particularly quiet quarter with a significant number of deals under offer awaiting completion.
The vital statistics have been summarised below:
|
Q2 2019 (sq ft) |
Q1 2019 (sq ft) |
% change |
% change Year on Year |
Total take up |
425,464 |
441,695 |
-3.67 |
76.06 |
Prime take up |
138,520 |
162,035 |
-14.51 |
637.67 |
Secondary take up |
286,944 |
279,660 |
2.60 |
28.75 |
Enquiries Remain Consistent
These positive market indicators have also been evident in the number of enquiries received. There has been a small increase in overall enquiry levels of 8% (an additional 11 enquiries) when compared to last quarter and 2%, when compared to the same period last year. This upward trend has continued for this quarter since 2016 (an additional 19 enquiries).
The majority of enquiries above 30,000 sq ft tend to be within the logistic/last mile delivery companies who are requiring supplementary accommodation to fulfil contract led requirements. Interestingly there are also enquiries from manufacturers, who are looking to take advantage of new builds in relocating to more modern and aesthetically pleasing industrial buildings.
Significant Occupational Transactions
Property |
Size |
Landlord/Vendor |
Tenant |
Terms |
Rent / Price (per sq ft) |
Optima 125, Hounsdown Business Park, Totton |
125,260 sq ft |
TH Real Estates |
Amazon UK Services Limited |
10 year lease |
£8.50 |
Units 7,8 & 9 Test Valley Business Park, Southampton |
48,936 sq ft |
Draper Tools Limited |
DSV Air & Sea Limited |
3 year lease |
£9.00 |
Unit 3 Compton Way, Southampton |
40,311 sq ft |
Threadneedle UK Property Authorised Investment |
Trinart Limited |
Freehold Sale |
£83.10 |
Unit 200 Fareham Reach, Gosport |
27,684 sq ft |
Britel Fund Trustees Limited |
Rainbow Designs Limited |
10 year lease |
£6.75 |
Unit 210 Fareham Reach, Gosport |
16,811 sq ft |
Britel Fund Trustees Limited |
CPG Logistics Limited |
10 year lease |
£6.75 |
Unit 2 Merlin Park, Portsmouth |
9,299 sq ft |
Canmoor Developments Limited |
MGS Laboratories Limited |
11 year lease |
£10.00 |
Prime rents continue to Marginally Increase
Rents remain relatively stable with a slight shift seen in prime rents in both Southampton and Portsmouth market, increasing in all size ranges. In the sub 5,000 sq ft market this is due to a lack of quality new build units and in the larger size sectors due to occupiers being prepared to pay more per sq ft for a new build with all its benefits as opposed to good quality secondary refurbishments.
Under 5,000 sq ft |
Prime capital value per sq ft |
Prime headline rent per sq ft |
Secondary capital value per sq ft |
Secondary headline rent per sq ft |
Portsmouth and Havant |
£135 - £145 |
£10.00 |
£90 - £100 |
£8.50 |
Southampton and Eastleigh |
£150-£160 |
00.2£1 |
£90-£100 |
00£10. |
Bournemouth and Poole |
£140-£150 |
£9.50 |
£95-£105 |
£8.50 |
|
|
|
|
|
5,000 – 20,000 sq ft |
Prime capital value per sq ft |
Prime headline rent per sq ft |
Secondary capital value per sq ft |
Secondary headline rent per sq ft |
Portsmouth and Havant |
£125 - £135 |
£9.50 |
£70 - £80 |
£8 |
Southampton and Eastleigh |
£130-£140 |
£9.50 |
£80-£95 |
£9.00 |
Bournemouth and Poole |
£115-£120 |
£8.50 |
£85-£95 |
£7.50 |
|
|
|
|
|
Over 20,000 sq ft |
Prime capital value per sq ft |
Prime headline rent per sq ft |
Secondary capital value per sq ft |
Secondary headline rent per sq ft |
Portsmouth and Havant |
£110 - £130 |
£9.00 |
£70 - £80 |
£7.75 |
Southampton and Eastleigh |
£115-£140 |
£10.00 |
£70-£85 |
£8.75 |
Bournemouth and Poole |
£110-£120 |
£8.25 |
£65-£75 |
£7.25 |
The marginal rental gap between prime and secondary stock echoes the overall south coast market sentiment; that there is strong demand in this location and occupiers are willing to pay good rents for units in the right location, with sound building fundamentals.
Investment Market Review
As a result of Brexit uncertainty transactional activity over the course of H1 has seen a notable decline. That said, demand for prime well let product has remained relatively strong with assets continuing to command robust pricing. In contrast to this we have witnessed a heightened degree of caution around secondary assets with a notable mismatch between vendor and buyer expectations.
Since the start of the year our records show that approximately £112m of industrial assets were made available to purchase. Whilst a small number of these opportunities remain unsold, the largest transaction, which successfully closed in February 2019, was the sale of Stanstead Road Trade Park and Boyatt Wood Industrial Estate for £34.725m (4.35% NIY).
In conclusion, the South Coast continues to be an attractive location buoyed by the strength of the occupational market. Prime multi and single let industrial has remained resilient but there is a noticeable thinning in the buyer pool as a result of the political environment. Prime yields stand at 4.25%
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